Bimco's ship demand forecast raised
Bimco has raised its 2025 ship demand growth forecast to 4.5–5.5% on the back of stronger trades outside North America, while keeping its 2026 forecast at 2.5–3.5%. Chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen said 2025 market conditions will likely be weaker than in 2024, with balance expected in 2026. North American imports are forecast to contract 2% in 2025 before returning to growth the following year, as tariff increases weigh on volumes according to Bimco.
Global cargo growth is projected at 2.5–3.5% annually in 2025 and 2026, driven by Asian exports to Africa, South America and Europe. Ship demand remains inflated by diversions around the Cape of Good Hope, with Suez transits still 90% below pre-crisis levels. Estimated supply growth is set at 7.3% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. Rasmussen noted freight rates could weaken further in late 2025 but stabilise in 2026 as supply and demand align. (js)