Drewry: focus on costs instead of revenue
Drewry’s Container Annual Review & Forecast 2014/15 foresees a recovery of the container industry by late 2016 or 2017. However, the analyst says an upswing is to be based around the formation of the new mega alliances and the continued reduction of unit costs rather than the matching of supply and demand at the individual trade route level.
There is a silver lining: even though unit revenues are down by an estimated 4% year on year for the first six months of this year, the positive is that unit costs have been reduced by 6%. The formation of the new alliances in the next 3 to 6 months will hopefully help a number of carriers reduce their cost base further, but Asia to north Europe spot rates have fallen 54% since the beginning of August to around USD 1,300 per feu.