Fragile balance ahead
According to BIMCO, average container market conditions in 2026 are expected to resemble those of 2025, assuming higher recycling activity and lower sailing speeds. For 2027, however, the outlook points to slightly weaker conditions. Ship demand is forecast to grow by 2.5–3.5% in both years, while fleet supply is projected to increase by 3% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027 according to Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
A key uncertainty remains the Red Sea. The gradual return of services to the Suez Canal, starting with CMA CGM routes, could reduce effective ship demand by around 10%. North American import volumes are expected to decline in 2025, followed by modest growth of 2% annually in 2026 and 2027. According to BIMCO recycling levels and sailing speed adjustments will remain decisive factors for capacity balance. "While our forecast indicates mostly stable market conditions, several uncertainties remain. In particular, the possibility of a return to Suez Canal routings looms large over the market outlook," stated Rasmussen.